Activate Leadership Council Predicts These Trends in Climate Tech for 2023

Robert Ethier, managing partner and co-founder of Impact Science Ventures, Activate Leadership Council member:

"From a macro perspective, this is an outrageously good time to be investing in climate. And that's based on market need alone, much less the policy and consumer sentiment aspects. I would compare it to investing in SaaS models and social media companies in the mid-to-late aughts and expect similar bonkers-type returns. Bold prediction, as unicorn minting continues to fall in most sectors: the number of climate unicorns will double in 2023."

Laura A. Smoliar, Ph.D., founding partner of Berkeley Catalyst Fund, Activate Leadership Council member, Nelumbo board member

“Solutions to climate change at scale lie at the intersection of science, policy, economics, and geography. My eye is on innovators who creatively combine technical advances with business deals that benefit underserved communities and disrupt the status quo, all while advancing progress on climate change. An example is Bakken Energy, which is driving down the cost of hydrogen to make it a viable alternative for long-haul trucking, while pulling together a diverse set of partners in Mitsubishi Power, the MHA Nation (also known as Three Affiliated Tribes, a federally recognized Native American tribe in central North Dakota), Cummins, and Pilot Company. Creative dealmakers, like Bakeen Energy CEO Mike Hopkins, are the ones to watch in 2023 and beyond for solutions at scale in climate change. We are proud to have him on the board of Activate company Nelumbo."

Sanjiv Sanghavi, climate venture partner at Day One Ventures, co-founder of ClassPass, Activate Leadership Council member

1. Big total addressable markets have led to long timelines and overcrowded markets with undifferentiated products—there, I said it! Big swings won’t be as exciting as niche markets and faster go-to-market. (I credit Rick Zullo of Equal Ventures for planting this thought.)

2. I predict a lot of twists, turns, and pivots to try and get that Inflation Reduction Act money!

3. The carbon market participants may not like it, but the shakeup that’s going to happen (or is already happening) this year will be good for it long-term. Carbon markets challenges can’t hide forever.

4. I’m seeing a lot of hacking around the data stack, particularly for companies with scientific data. This is a sign of innovation to come.

5. If some of the disasters and weather challenges taught us anything, it’s that things will get worse before they get better. We think a lot about resilience and how to prevent food, housing, and health system tragedies.

6. As climate solutions scale, insurance markets’ ears will perk up.

7. 2022 was the year of attracting ICs to climate. I’d love to see more highly leverageable leadership and serial entrepreneurs move over as well.

8. We’ll see more studios. In this market, predictable deal flow with outsized returns will be the goal. Incubators and studios try to make that promise.